高盛：再次上调预测2025年底黄金价格至3100美元

Investment Rating - The report raises the end-2025 gold price target to $3,100 per ounce from a previous target of$2,890 per ounce, with a potential upside to $3,300 per ounce if uncertainty persists [2][6][20]. Core Insights - The increase in the gold price forecast is attributed to structurally higher central bank demand, with a strong December nowcast indicating 108 tonnes of demand, significantly above the pre-2022 average of 17 tonnes [6][7][10]. - China remains the largest buyer, contributing 45 tonnes to the December total, leading to an upgrade in the central bank demand assumption to 50 tonnes per month from 41 tonnes [6][7][10]. - The report estimates that the higher central bank demand will contribute approximately 9$3,100 per ounce, with a potential high of $3,300 per ounce if policy uncertainty remains elevated [2][20]. - If central bank purchases average 70 tonnes per month, the gold price could reach$3,200 per ounce by the end of 2025 [16][22]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that elevated policy uncertainty, including tariff fears, could lead to speculative positioning that drives gold prices higher [16][22]. - A potential increase in trade tensions and concerns over US fiscal sustainability could further support gold prices, with estimates suggesting a rise to $3,250 per ounce under such conditions [22].