轻工造纸行业2024年报业绩前瞻：2024Q4出口表现亮眼，内销边际改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the light industry and paper manufacturing sector for 2024, highlighting strong export performance and marginal improvements in domestic sales [1]. Core Insights - Export growth is expected to continue in Q4 2024, benefiting from currency depreciation, with companies like Jia Yi Co., Jiangxin Home, and Yongyi Co. showing significant revenue increases [1][3]. - The light consumer goods sector is experiencing a deepening of competitive barriers, with companies like Baiya Co. and Gongniu Group maintaining market share despite external pressures [1][3]. - The two-wheeler and motorcycle segments are poised for growth due to new national standards and increased replacement demand, with recommendations for companies like Yadi Holdings and Qianjiang Motorcycle [1][3]. - The packaging industry is undergoing consolidation, with leading companies like Yutong Technology and Yongxin Co. expected to show high dividend value [1][3]. - The home furnishing sector is seeing demand improvements due to national subsidies, with companies like Sophia and Gujia Home benefiting from market share recovery [1][3]. - The paper industry is facing weak demand and limited cost reductions, but companies like Sun Paper and Huawang Technology are expected to have long-term investment value [1][3]. Summary by Segment Export Sector - Q4 2024 is projected to see continued revenue growth, with companies like Jiangxin Home and Jia Yi Co. expecting significant increases in revenue and profit margins [4][5]. - Notable revenue predictions include Jiangxin Home at 6.77 billion yuan (up 45% YoY) and Jia Yi Co. at 8.20 billion yuan (up 50% YoY) [4][5]. Light Consumer Goods - Baiya Co. is expected to achieve a revenue of 9.30 billion yuan (up 39% YoY) despite a profit decline [9]. - Gongniu Group and Chenguang Co. are also projected to show stable growth in Q4 2024 [9]. Two-Wheeler & Motorcycle - Companies like Aima Technology and Qianjiang Motorcycle are expected to see revenue growth of 30% and 10% respectively in Q4 2024 [10][12]. - Qianjiang Motorcycle's profit is projected to increase by 295% YoY [10][12]. Packaging - Yutong Technology is expected to see a revenue increase of 10% in Q4 2024, with a focus on high dividend yields [11][13]. - New Giant and Zijiang Enterprises are also projected to show revenue growth [11][13]. Home Furnishing - Companies like Sophia and Gujia Home are expected to recover market share, with revenue predictions of 31.88 billion yuan and 49.75 billion yuan respectively [16][17]. - The overall home furnishing market is expected to see marginal improvements due to national subsidies [1][3]. Paper Industry - Sun Paper is projected to have a revenue of 98.25 billion yuan in Q4 2024, despite a profit decline [19][20]. - Companies like Huawang Technology are expected to show resilience with a profit increase [19][20].