MEITUAN(03690) 国信证券·2025-02-19 07:25Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][6][22] Core Viewpoints - Meituan's core competitiveness in the food delivery sector remains strong, with no significant competitors observed in the short term. The entry of new players may provide good buying opportunities for the market [6][22] - The report highlights DoorDash's strong growth and AI initiatives, which could serve as a reference for Meituan's own AI strategies [4][10] - The impact of JD's entry into the food delivery market is expected to be limited, as JD's focus is on high-quality dining merchants, which may not significantly disrupt Meituan's market position [5][21] Summary by Sections Company Overview - DoorDash has become the absolute leader in the U.S. food delivery market, achieving a market share of 63% as of November 2024, with revenues of 2.87 billion, a 25% increase year-on-year, and a GAAP net profit of 154 million in the same period last year [8][4] AI Initiatives - DoorDash has been actively exploring AI applications, including an AI voice ordering service launched in August 2023, which enhances restaurant operational efficiency and sales [10][13] - The introduction of AI tools like DashAI and SafeChat+ aims to optimize user experience and improve communication safety between customers and delivery personnel [14][10] Competitive Landscape - JD's entry into the food delivery market is characterized by a focus on high-end dining merchants, which may not significantly impact Meituan's existing customer base and market share [5][21] - The report suggests that JD's food delivery service is more of an auxiliary feature within its instant retail strategy, and its impact on Meituan is expected to be limited in the current stable market environment [21][5] Financial Projections - The revenue forecasts for Meituan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 338.2 billion, 391.4 billion, and 445.7 billion yuan respectively, with adjusted net profit estimates of 43 billion, 52.2 billion, and 58.5 billion yuan [6][22] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are expected to be 23, 19, and 17 times for the respective years [6][22]