MENGNIU DAIRY(02319) 东吴证券·2025-02-19 14:28Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Mengniu Dairy (02319.HK) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Mengniu Dairy's impairment provisions have cleared historical burdens, setting a solid foundation for profit growth in 2025. The company anticipates a gradual improvement in the dairy industry supply-demand balance, which is expected to enhance the operational conditions of upstream farms [7][8] - Despite a challenging 2024, the company's main operations show resilience, with expected improvements in gross and operating profit margins due to declining raw milk prices and various efficiency enhancement measures [7] - The report emphasizes the company's strong cash flow and commitment to shareholder returns, indicating that the anticipated impairments are non-cash accounting items. The company aims to maximize shareholder returns through dividend policies that exclude these impairments [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 886.82 billion, 936.85 billion, and 96.714 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of -10.08%, +5.64%, and +3.23% [7] - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is 110.14 million, 4.83 billion, and 5.42 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of -97.71%, +4289%, and +12% respectively [7] - The report projects a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS) from 0.03 RMB in 2024 to 1.38 RMB in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 575.24, 13.11, and 11.68 [1][7]