房地产行业2025年1月70个大中城市房价数据点评：70城新房、二手房房价环比跌幅均持平；二线城市新房房价环比增速回正

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [23] Core Viewpoints - In January 2025, the new home prices in 70 major cities decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.3%, maintaining the same decline as December 2024 [6][11] - The report highlights that the new home price growth in second-tier cities has turned positive for the first time since June 2023, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [6][10] - The report indicates that the first-tier cities experienced a slight narrowing in price growth, with new home prices increasing by 0.1% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices also rose by 0.1% [6][10] - The report suggests that the market's recovery since the fourth quarter of 2024 needs further validation, particularly in light of the upcoming Two Sessions and potential new policies [6][10] Summary by Sections Price Trends - In January 2025, 42 out of 70 cities saw new home prices decline, with an average drop of 0.29%, while 60 cities experienced a decrease in second-hand home prices, averaging a decline of 0.42% [6][12] - The report notes that the number of cities with rising new home prices was 24, while 4 cities remained stable [12][18] City Performance - First-tier cities showed resilience, with Shanghai's new home prices increasing by 0.6% and Shenzhen by 0.2%, while Beijing continued to decline [6][10] - In second-tier cities, notable increases were observed in cities like Nanjing (0.7%) and Chengdu (0.7%), with 55% of these cities reporting stable or rising new home prices [6][10] - Third-tier cities saw a month-on-month decline of 0.2% in new home prices, with only a few cities like Wuxi showing slight increases [6][10] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main lines: 1. Companies with stable fundamentals and high market share in core cities, such as Greentown China and China Resources Land [6] 2. Smaller firms that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024, like Poly Real Estate [6] 3. Companies benefiting from local government debt relief strategies, such as Xinda Real Estate [6]