MENGNIU DAIRY(02319) 交银国际证券·2025-02-20 09:31Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of total returns exceeding the relevant industry over the next 12 months [6][13]. Core Insights - The company's main business performance remains robust, with a significant profit expectation increase in the second half of the year after excluding impairment losses [2][7]. - The report highlights that despite a decline in total revenue year-on-year due to market pressures, the company benefits from a decrease in raw milk prices, leading to improved gross and operating profit margins [7]. - The company anticipates a profit of RMB 0.5-2.5 billion for 2024, primarily due to impairment provisions related to brand acquisitions, with specific expected impairments of RMB 3.8-4 billion for Bellamy and RMB 0.79-0.9 billion affecting the profit statement [7]. - The company assures that dividend declarations will not be impacted by one-time factors, maintaining a commitment to increase the payout ratio to 50% over the next two years [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 92,593 million in 2022, RMB 98,624 million in 2023, with an expected decline to RMB 87,504 million in 2024, followed by a recovery to RMB 91,904 million in 2025 and RMB 96,934 million in 2026 [10]. - Net profit is projected to drop significantly to RMB 244 million in 2024, recovering to RMB 5,078 million in 2025 and RMB 5,853 million in 2026 [10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be RMB 1.34 in 2022, declining to RMB 1.22 in 2023, and then dropping to RMB 0.06 in 2024, before rebounding to RMB 1.29 in 2025 and RMB 1.48 in 2026 [10]. - The report indicates a target price adjustment to HKD 20.94, up from HKD 16.04, based on a 15x price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 [7][8].