中银证券：中银晨会聚焦-20250221

Core Viewpoints - In January 2025, new home prices in 70 major cities decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.3%, maintaining the same decline as December 2024 [5][4][6] - The number of cities with declining new home prices decreased by one to 42, with an average decline of 0.29%, which is a slight improvement compared to the previous month [5][6] - First-tier cities showed a slight increase in new and second-hand home prices, with new home prices rising by 0.1% and second-hand home prices also increasing by 0.1% [6][7] Real Estate Market Analysis - The real estate market in January 2025 continued to experience price declines, but the rate of decline has stabilized, indicating a potential bottoming out [5][6] - In first-tier cities, Shanghai and Shenzhen saw new home prices increase by 0.6% and 0.2% respectively, while Beijing's prices continued to decline [6][7] - Second-tier cities experienced a turnaround with new home prices increasing by 0.1%, marking the first positive growth since June 2023 [7][8] Price Trends by City Tier - Third-tier cities saw new home prices decrease by 0.2%, with a notable narrowing of the decline compared to previous months [8][9] - The average decline in second-hand home prices in third-tier cities was 0.4%, consistent with the previous month, but also showing signs of stabilization [9] - The report highlights that only the prices of entry-level second-hand homes saw an expanded decline, indicating ongoing pressure in the lower segment of the market [9]