NTES(09999) 开源证券·2025-02-21 14:20Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4][12] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 105.3 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 2.91%, and a net profit of 29.7 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.96% [4] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 26.7 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 1.45% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.05%, with a net profit of 8.8 billion CNY, marking a year-on-year increase of 33.18% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 34.08% [4] - The company is expected to benefit from new product cycles, with projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 34.2 billion CNY, 39 billion CNY, and 42.4 billion CNY respectively, corresponding to EPS of 10.7 CNY, 12.1 CNY, and 13.2 CNY [4] Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue from games and related value-added services in Q4 2024 was 21.2 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 1.4% [4] - The company’s online music service revenue grew rapidly, with a 22% increase in subscription revenue for cloud music in 2024, achieving a gross margin of 33.7% [6] - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 was 28.2%, with a projected net profit margin of 28.3% for 2025 [7] Product Performance - The game "Marvel Showdown" launched overseas on December 6, 2024, quickly topped the Steam global sales chart, with over 10 million registered users within 72 hours, and currently surpassing 40 million [5] - The game "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" saw over 3 million downloads within four days of its domestic launch, with total players exceeding 15 million within two weeks [5] - The return of Blizzard games such as "World of Warcraft" and "Hearthstone" has positively impacted the company's revenue, with the recent return of "Overwatch" expected to further boost earnings [5] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company’s projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 120.97 billion CNY, 135.22 billion CNY, and 146.33 billion CNY respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.9%, 11.8%, and 8.2% [7] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 14.0, 12.3, and 11.3 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [7]