Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating to China Cinda (01359.HK) [6] Core Views - China Cinda is a comprehensive financial group focused on non-performing asset management, with its business segments including non-performing asset operations and financial services [15][19] - The company has experienced stable asset size but declining revenue and net profit in recent years, with total assets at 1.58 trillion yuan and net profit of 1.6 billion yuan in the first half of 2024 [20][19] - The non-performing asset management segment accounted for 53% of revenue in the first half of 2024, while financial services contributed 48% [19] Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Cinda, established in 1999, primarily engages in non-performing asset management and has undergone a commercial transformation since 2004 [15] - The company operates through various subsidiaries, including banks, securities, and trust companies, with a workforce of approximately 14,000 [15] Non-Performing Asset Business - The non-performing asset management business has returned to its core operations, with stable acquisition and operational yields expected to benefit from economic recovery [2][29] - The company has reduced its acquisition and restructuring business scale, focusing on core operations [29][33] Financial Services Business - China Cinda has a complete range of financial service licenses through its subsidiaries, covering banking, securities, futures, public funds, trusts, and leasing [47] - The financial services segment has shown a steady increase in revenue contribution, with South Commercial Bank facing rising non-performing loan ratios [47][48] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to see net profits of 2.4 billion, 4 billion, and 4.7 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding EPS of 0.06, 0.11, and 0.12 yuan [3][72] - The estimated reasonable valuation ranges from 1.27 to 1.62 HKD, indicating a potential premium of 2% to 30% over the current stock price [3][6]
中国信达：受益经济复苏，业绩筑底-20250223