BAMC(601137) 国信证券·2025-02-23 12:43Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company has deepened its focus on the copper alloy sector for 30 years, showcasing strong R&D capabilities and transitioning to a high-end alloy material solution provider since 2016. The main products include copper alloy strips, rods, wires, and precision fine wires. The company has also entered the photovoltaic sector through the acquisition of Ningbo Connate, establishing a business model centered on "new materials as the main focus + renewable energy as a supplement" [6][12] - The development of AI technology and the smart automotive sector is expected to boost demand for copper strips, which are high-value-added products used in semiconductors, smart devices, automotive electronics, and smart internet devices. The company plans to expand its copper strip production capacity significantly [6] - Breakthroughs in humanoid robotics are anticipated to create demand for precision fine wires and wires, particularly for applications in harmonic gears, which are crucial for high-precision motion control [6] - The initial anti-dumping and countervailing duties align with expectations, and the company is set to launch a 3GW battery cell and 2GW module project in the U.S. by 2025 [6] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 196.65 billion, 267.52 billion, and 295.36 billion yuan, with net profits of 15.82 billion, 12.95 billion, and 15.43 billion yuan respectively, indicating significant growth potential [6] Company Overview - The company, established in 1993, has evolved from a supplier of mid-to-high-end copper alloy materials to a comprehensive solution provider. It has a clear development strategy focusing on new materials and renewable energy [12][19] - The company has a global manufacturing footprint with 13 production bases, enhancing its ability to leverage regional advantages and mitigate policy risks [15] New Materials: Significant Technical Advantages - The company’s new materials segment includes alloy rods, wires, strips, and precision fine wires, with a focus on high-performance products. The production capacity for copper alloy strips is expected to reach 13.8 million tons in the future [42][47] - In 2023, the company’s new materials segment achieved a sales volume of 19.7 million tons, with a notable increase in strip production [42] Renewable Energy: Growth in Profitability - The renewable energy segment has significantly contributed to the company's profitability since 2022, with a marked increase in sales and net profit margins [19][25] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company’s revenue and net profit forecasts indicate a robust growth trajectory, with a reasonable stock price range estimated between 28.7 and 31.9 yuan, suggesting a potential upside of 31.45% to 46.05% from current levels [6] R&D Strength - The company has a strong R&D foundation, with a leading R&D expense ratio compared to peers, and is actively pursuing digital transformation to enhance its manufacturing capabilities [85]