Zhujiang Brewery(002461) 华泰证券·2025-02-24 04:05Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" with a target price of RMB 11.70 [7][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to outperform the industry in terms of volume and price performance in 2024, driven by product upgrades and a favorable market structure in Guangdong [1][4]. - The company's beer sales volume and price are projected to increase by 2.6% and 3.8% year-on-year, respectively, with high-end products like 97 Pure Beer benefiting from improved market dynamics [2][4]. - The company is actively engaging in promotional activities to boost sales during the Chinese New Year, resulting in significant increases in both offline and online sales [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 5.73 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 813.25 million, up 30.3% year-on-year [1][6]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at RMB 0.37, with further increases to RMB 0.45 in 2025 and RMB 0.52 in 2026 [4][6]. Market Positioning - The company is well-positioned in the South China market, benefiting from strong consumer demand and brand recognition, particularly for its high-end products [2][4]. - The competitive landscape is expected to favor the company as competitors are cautious with their spending, allowing for potential market share gains [4]. Growth Projections - The company is projected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23% in net profit from 2024 to 2026, significantly higher than the industry average of 4% [4][12]. - The target price reflects a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 26x for 2025, indicating confidence in the company's growth trajectory [4][12].