Workflow
思摩尔国际：全球合规雾化龙头，HNB打开成长空间-20250224
06969SMOORE INTL(06969) 国信证券·2025-02-24 14:17

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a global leader in compliant vaping technology, with significant growth potential in the Heat-Not-Burn (HNB) segment [3]. Market Overview - The global new tobacco market is estimated at approximately 76.9billionin2023,withHNBande−cigarettesaccountingfor4576.9 billion in 2023, with HNB and e-cigarettes accounting for 45% and 28% of the market, respectively [4][14]. - The penetration rate of new tobacco products among smokers is only 8.1%, indicating substantial room for growth [15]. Regional Analysis - **United States**: The largest market for new tobacco, valued at 24.8 billion in 2023, with HNB market potential expected to increase following patent resolutions between major tobacco companies [23][27]. - Europe: The market reached 31billionin2023,withahighacceptanceofHNBproducts,particularlyinEasternEurope[5].−∗∗JapanandSouthKorea∗∗:DominantmarketsforHNB,withrespectivemarketsizesof31 billion in 2023, with a high acceptance of HNB products, particularly in Eastern Europe [5]. - **Japan and South Korea**: Dominant markets for HNB, with respective market sizes of 11.7 billion and 2.6billionin2023,showingstronggrowthtrends[5].CompetitiveLandscape−MajortobaccocompanieslikePMIandBATareleadingthetransitiontonewtobaccoproducts,withsignificantmarketsharesintheHNBsegment[6].−Thecompanyholdsapproximately13.72.6 billion in 2023, showing strong growth trends [5]. Competitive Landscape - Major tobacco companies like PMI and BAT are leading the transition to new tobacco products, with significant market shares in the HNB segment [6]. - The company holds approximately 13.7% of the global e-vapor device market, with a focus on expanding its HNB product offerings [7]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.304 billion, 1.578billion,and1.578 billion, and 2.040 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.21, 0.26, and 0.33 [8]. - The estimated market value for the company is expected to reach between HKD 714 billion and HKD 1,020 billion by 2025, with a PE ratio ranging from 45 to 65 [8]. Growth Drivers - The growth is driven by the industry's beta benefits and the anticipated regulatory clarity, alongside the commercialization of HNB products for major clients [8].