宏观和大类资产配置周报：需求是拉升国际金价的重要因素

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.00% this week, while the CSI 300 Index futures increased by 1.09%[2] - Thermal coal futures surged by 3.86%, and iron ore main contracts rose by 3.07% this week[2] - The annualized yield of Yu'ebao decreased by 4 basis points to 1.25%[2] Asset Allocation Insights - The recommended asset allocation order is: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Currency[3] - As of February 20, 2025, the price of London gold reached $2,939.0 per ounce, marking a 12.0% increase since the beginning of the year and a 60.7% increase compared to 2022[3] - The geopolitical threat index averaged 159.1 from February 1 to February 18, significantly higher than the level on January 1[3] Economic Indicators - The ten-year government bond yield rose by 7 basis points to 1.72% this week, while active ten-year government bond futures fell by 0.53%[2] - Global gold reserves increased by 0.81% year-on-year as of February 2025, with 0.77 percentage points attributed to purchases by central banks[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include a second rise in global inflation, a rapid decline in the US and European economies, and increasing complexity in international relations[3]