SRBC(600039) 华泰证券·2025-02-25 03:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Sichuan Road and Bridge (600039 CH) with a target price of RMB 11.35 [7][8]. Core Views - The company has announced a shareholder return plan for 2025-2027, increasing the cash dividend payout ratio from 50% to at least 60% of net profit attributable to shareholders, indicating strong investment value [1][4]. - Sichuan Province's strategic importance supports ongoing investment in infrastructure, which is expected to benefit the company's fundamentals and profit stability [1][2]. - The positive cycle between the controlling shareholder, Shudao Group, and Sichuan Road and Bridge enhances the company's development and cash flow [3][4]. Summary by Sections Shareholder Return Plan - The company plans to distribute cash dividends of no less than 60% of net profit from 2025 to 2027, up from the previous 50% [1]. - Estimated dividend yields for 2025 and 2026 are projected at 7.28% and 7.66%, respectively, based on a closing price of RMB 7.20 on February 24 [1]. Infrastructure Investment in Sichuan - The Sichuan Provincial Highway Network Layout Plan (2022-2035) aims for a total of 20,000 kilometers of highways, with 10,310 kilometers already operational by the end of 2024 [2]. - The province plans to maintain an average annual construction intensity of 969 kilometers over the next decade, with a target investment of RMB 2,600 billion in 2025 [2]. Synergy with Shudao Group - Shudao Group holds 79.22% of Sichuan Road and Bridge's shares, creating a beneficial cycle where project investments secure orders for the company, ensuring market share and cash flow [3]. - The increased dividend payout ratio is expected to further enhance this synergy, supporting the company's growth [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are adjusted to RMB 7.994 billion, RMB 7.609 billion, and RMB 8.008 billion, respectively [4]. - The target price is adjusted to RMB 11.35, based on a 13x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting a higher dividend yield compared to peers [4].