HEILAN HOME(600398) 国信证券·2025-02-26 10:37Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - The company is a leading brand group in men's apparel with over 7,000 offline stores and a market share of approximately 5% as of 2024. In 2023, the company generated revenue of 21.5 billion yuan, with the main brand accounting for 77% of this revenue [1][18] - The company has a stable financial performance characterized by high return on equity (ROE), ample cash flow, and a high dividend payout ratio. The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 2.34 billion, 2.65 billion, and 2.99 billion yuan, respectively [4][9][33] Company Overview - The company is recognized as the largest men's apparel brand group in China, maintaining the top market share for several consecutive years. The revenue breakdown includes 165 million yuan from the main brand, 22.8 million yuan from group purchasing and customization, and 20.2 million yuan from new brand matrices [1][18] - The ownership structure is concentrated, with the Zhou family holding a combined 60% of the shares [1][20] Business Development - The company has undergone over 30 years of development, evolving from brand establishment to becoming a multi-brand retail giant. The company is now expanding into new growth areas, including the integration of the Sboz business and the rapid advancement of the JD Outlet business [1][4][30] Financial Analysis - The company has demonstrated stable profitability, with a high ROE and strong cash flow. The dividend payout ratio has been consistently high, with a forecasted payout ratio of 67.5% for 2024 [4][33] - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 21.19 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decline of 1.6% from the previous year, but expected to rebound with a growth of 17.3% in 2025 [9][34] Market Trends - The men's apparel market in China is valued at approximately 748.7 billion yuan, with a stable growth rate. The concentration of non-sport men's apparel brands is continuously increasing, indicating a more favorable market structure for leading brands like the company [45][46] - The company is expanding its overseas presence, with expectations to reach around 90 overseas stores by the end of 2024, which are projected to be more profitable than domestic stores [2][3] New Business Initiatives - The company has established a joint venture, Sboz, to enter the sports retail sector, which includes the JD Outlet business. The JD Outlet is expected to fill a gap in the lower-tier market and is projected to have significant growth potential [3][4][30] - The Sboz business is anticipated to contribute significantly to future profits, with expectations of rapid store openings and a high-profit model [4][30]