高盛：解读 2017 年至 2024 年中国的进出口趋势

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - China's export dominance has strengthened from 2017 to 2024, with its share of global exports rising from 12.9% to 14.8% and its trade surplus more than doubling from approximately USD 420 billion to nearly USD 1 trillion [4][26][27] - The annual average growth rate of China's nominal exports was 6.7% during 2017-2024, significantly higher than the 5.1% growth rate of imports [7][13] - The shift in trade patterns indicates a growing reliance on emerging market (EM) economies, with their share in Chinese exports increasing from 46% in 2017 to 55% in 2024, and imports from EM economies rising from 39% to 51% [13][22] Summary by Sections Trade Growth and Trends - Between 2017 and 2024, China's nominal goods exports grew by 58%, while imports increased by 42%, highlighting a significant disparity in growth rates [7][30] - The strength in Chinese export growth was broad-based, including upstream materials and downstream products, while import growth was concentrated in commodities and basic materials [17][30] Bilateral Trade Dynamics - China's trade balance improved against most major economies, with notable increases in trade surpluses with the US, rising from USD 276 billion in 2017 to USD 361 billion in 2024 [27][28] - The report highlights a marked shift in China's trade from developed markets (DM) to emerging markets (EM), with exports to countries like Russia and ASEAN growing over 10% per year [13][18] Geopolitical Influences - The report identifies a strong correlation between geopolitical closeness to China and changes in trade patterns, with countries that are geopolitically aligned with China increasing their trade with it [23][24] - The analysis indicates that geopolitical factors have become increasingly important in shaping bilateral trade relations, particularly in the context of the US-China trade tensions [30][47] Product-Specific Insights - Chinese exports of transportation equipment, chemicals, and machinery showed robust growth, while imports of transportation equipment declined [17][31] - The trend of import substitution is evident, with Chinese exports of autos and machine tools significantly exceeding imports by 2024 [40][42]