XGIMI(688696) 开源证券·2025-02-26 08:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is expected to see a turning point in performance in Q4 2024, with accelerated expansion in the automotive business. The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 34.14 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.02%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.22 billion yuan, an increase of 1.14% [5][6]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2024-2026, estimating net profits of 1.22 billion yuan, 3.47 billion yuan, and 4.93 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.74, 4.96, and 7.04 yuan [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q4 2024, the company anticipates revenue of 11.32 billion yuan (down 0.22%) and a net profit of 1.62 billion yuan (up 372.4%), with a non-recurring net profit of 1.58 billion yuan (up 504.3%) [5]. - The financial summary indicates a revenue decline from 4,222 million yuan in 2022 to an estimated 3,414 million yuan in 2024, with a projected recovery to 4,120 million yuan in 2025 [8][12]. Market Trends - The domestic market is benefiting from government subsidy policies, leading to an improvement in sales. The retail volume of smart projectors in China is expected to increase by 13% in Q4 2024, despite a decline in average price [6][7]. - The company has expanded its overseas sales channels, entering mainstream retail in regions such as the United States and Japan, contributing to revenue growth [6]. Automotive Business Expansion - The company has secured seven automotive business contracts, including partnerships with major automotive manufacturers for in-car projection systems and smart lighting components. These projects are expected to contribute to revenue starting in 2025 [7][8]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 56.2 for 2024, decreasing to 19.7 in 2025 and further to 13.9 in 2026, indicating a potential for improved valuation as earnings grow [8][12]. - The estimated return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 3.8% in 2023 to 12.2% by 2026, reflecting improved profitability [8][12].