煤炭行业周报：需求难有起色，煤价进一步探底

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3] Core Views - The coal sector has seen a decline of 4.31% recently, underperforming the benchmark index (CSI 300) by 5.31 percentage points [5] - Domestic and international thermal coal prices continue to decline, with domestic prices at 730 RMB/ton, down 2.67% week-on-week, and international prices for Australian NEWC, European ARA, and South African RB thermal coal at 102 USD/ton, 101 USD/ton, and 91 USD/ton, respectively, showing declines of 5.56%, 4.72%, and 3.03% [6] - The supply of thermal coal remains stable, but demand is expected to be weak due to high inventory levels at power plants and insufficient consumption rates [6] - Domestic coking coal prices have dropped significantly, with Shanxi Luliang main coking coal priced at 1200 RMB/ton, down 7.69% week-on-week, while international prices remain stable [7] - The report suggests that while thermal coal demand is weak, coking coal prices may stabilize as downstream demand improves with the end of holidays and rising temperatures [8] Summary by Sections Market Review - The coal sector's performance over the past month shows a relative return of -15%, -9% over three months, and -20% over twelve months compared to the CSI 300 [4] - The sector's PE valuation is at 10.19 times, at the 48.34% percentile over the past decade, while the PB valuation is at 1.18 times, at the 29.5% percentile, indicating a week-on-week decline in valuations [5] Coal Market Tracking - Domestic thermal coal prices are under pressure, with a noted decline in demand from power plants, which are primarily consuming their existing inventory [6] - Coking coal supply is recovering, but demand from steel mills is weaker than expected, leading to a decline in production rates [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on coking coal companies with low valuations and potential for marginal improvement in operations, maintaining an "Overweight" rating for the industry [8]