国君策略|全球关税与风险暴露测算

Group 1: Tariff Policy Developments - Two key tariff-related dates in H1 2025: April 1 for the assessment of tariffs and US-China trade relations; April 15 for potential inclusion of tariffs in the fiscal budget resolution[1] - Trump's directive on February 13, 2025, to explore "reciprocal tariffs" indicates a shift in trade policy focus[1] - The proposed Republican budget includes a 10% global tariff and increased tariffs on China, reflecting a potential revenue source for the US government over the next decade[1] Group 2: Trade Relations and Impacts - The US aims to implement "reciprocal tariffs" targeting countries with significant trade surpluses, including India, Thailand, Mexico, and China, with China having a trade surplus of nearly $300 billion with the US[2] - Current average tariff rates: approximately 24% on Chinese exports to the US and over 21% on US exports to China, indicating a higher average tariff imposed by the US[2] - China's reliance on external demand is increasing, with the US contributing 36.4% to China's trade surplus in 2024, surpassing contributions from the EU and ASEAN[3] Group 3: Industry-Specific Insights - The high-end manufacturing sector in China is expected to be less affected by tariff disruptions due to its competitive advantages, including production capacity and cost-effectiveness[3] - The average tariff rate for high-end manufacturing in 2025 is projected to be lower compared to other industries, suggesting resilience against tariff impacts[3] Group 4: Risks and Uncertainties - Global geopolitical uncertainties and the unpredictability of US tariff policies pose significant risks to trade dynamics[4]