SUN PAPER(002078) 信达证券·2025-02-28 08:23Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with total revenue of 40.739 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.126 billion yuan, up 1.3% year-on-year [1] - The fourth quarter saw a revenue of 9.764 billion yuan, down 5.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 667 million yuan, down 29.7% year-on-year, indicating a challenging market environment [1] - Despite the downturn in paper prices, the company maintained stable profitability, with underlying profit logic continuing to expand moderately [1] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 40.739 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.0% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.126 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [1] - The adjusted net profit was 3.263 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 7.8% [1] Price Trends and Cost Analysis - In Q4 2024, the average price of double glue paper and copper plate paper decreased by 4.0% and 2.0% respectively, while the average price of boxboard and corrugated paper increased by 1.1% and 5.2% respectively [2] - The cost of low-priced pulp was affected by global shipping efficiency, leading to delays in inventory [2] - The report anticipates a recovery in pulp and paper profitability due to price increases and cost improvements [2] Capacity Expansion and Project Development - By the end of 2023, the company's total capacity exceeded 12 million tons, with pulp and paper capacities reaching 5 million tons and 7.14 million tons respectively [3] - The Nanning project is progressing steadily, with various phases of production expected to commence in 2025 [3] - The company plans to invest in additional production lines for specialty paper and chemical pulp, indicating a robust growth trajectory [3] Financial Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 3.13 billion yuan, 3.61 billion yuan, and 4.16 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.5X, 10.9X, and 9.4X [3]