SUN PAPER(002078) 长江证券·2025-03-02 04:49Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve total operating revenue, net profit attributable to the parent company, and net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of 40.739 billion, 3.126 billion, and 3.263 billion yuan respectively in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3%, 1%, and 8% [2][4]. - In Q4 2024, the company is projected to achieve total operating revenue, net profit attributable to the parent company, and net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of 9.764 billion, 667 million, and 672 million yuan respectively, showing a year-on-year decline of 6%, 30%, and 29% [2][4]. - The report anticipates a continuous upward trend in profits for Q1 and Q2 of 2025 due to several factors including price increases for cultural paper, rising pulp prices, and the expected resumption of production at the relocated dissolving pulp production line [10][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total operating revenue of 39.544 billion yuan in 2023, with projections of 40.739 billion, 42.727 billion, and 47.229 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [14]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 3.086 billion yuan, with forecasts of 3.126 billion, 3.638 billion, and 4.208 billion yuan for the following three years [14]. Market Outlook - The industry is expected to enter a significant upward cycle over the next 2-3 years, with limited new production capacity anticipated after H1 2025, alongside a clear expectation of price increases for pulp and paper due to demand recovery [10][10]. - The company plans to increase its planting area by over 10,000 hectares in 2024 and an additional over 10,000 hectares in 2025, which is expected to enhance wood chip profit contributions [10].