本轮科技行情是否会复刻2015年科技牛市？

Market Performance - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced significant fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Technology Index dropping by 5.32% on Friday[1] - The computer sector saw a decline of over 5%, while the North Securities 50 Index fell by 4.32% and the CSI 2000 Index dropped by 4.16%[1][7] Market Sentiment and Trends - Current market sentiment resembles early 2021 rather than the 2014-2015 tech bull market, with a notable increase in risk appetite[2][9] - The macro environment is characterized by rising risk preferences, but corporate earnings in China are under significant pressure[2][10] Policy and Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. has accelerated tariff increases, with additional 10% tariffs on Chinese goods effective March 4, impacting market stability[2][10] - Domestic policies are focused on high-quality development, with expectations for monetary and fiscal policies to be less aggressive than anticipated[2][10] Investment Recommendations - Defensive assets (dividends, bonds) and safe-haven assets (gold, non-ferrous metals, power equipment) are favored over high-valuation tech stocks[5][17] - Investors should be cautious of overvalued small-cap and tech stocks, especially in light of potential market corrections due to geopolitical tensions[5][17] Valuation Insights - The ChiNext 50 Index has a current P/E ratio of 113, with negative earnings growth, while the Hang Seng Technology Index has a P/E of 23.62 and a projected earnings growth of 23% for Q3 2024[12][12] - The current market is primarily driven by "large existing funds," with cautious participation from long-term capital due to regulatory constraints[12][16]