Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company and raises the target price to USD 324 for US stocks, HKD 194 for Hong Kong stocks, and CNY 273 for A-shares [1][11]. Core Insights - The company's revenue guidance for 2025 is stronger than market expectations, reaffirming the GAAP operating profit guidance [1][3]. - The company achieved a product revenue of USD 1.118 billion in Q4 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 77.3% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 12.5% [2]. - The adjusted non-GAAP operating profit for Q4 2024 was USD 78.6 million, marking the third consecutive quarter of profitability [2]. - The strong overseas sales of the drug Zebutinib contributed to a gross margin of 85.6% in Q4 2024, an increase of 2.4 percentage points year-over-year [2]. Revenue Guidance - The total product revenue guidance for 2025 is set at USD 4.9-5.3 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 29.6% to 40.2%, which exceeds both Visible Alpha's expectation of 27% and the previous forecast of 21% [3]. - GAAP operating expenses are projected to be USD 4.1-4.4 billion, aligning with market expectations [3]. Product Performance - Zebutinib's global sales reached USD 828 million in Q4 2024, showing a year-over-year growth of 100.5% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 20% [4]. - The US sales of Zebutinib amounted to USD 616 million, a 96.7% increase year-over-year, while European sales reached USD 113 million, up 147.8% year-over-year [4]. Research and Development Progress - The company is expected to have multiple research catalysts in 2025, including the announcement of global phase II data for Sonrotoclax in the second half of 2025 [5][10]. - The company plans to initiate several phase III clinical trials in 2025 for various indications [10]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at USD 4.972 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 30.5% [12][16]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of USD 81 million in 2025, transitioning from a loss in previous years [12][16].
百济神州：2025年收入指引强于市场预期，重申GAA POP盈利指引-20250303