CHACHA FOOD CO.,LTD(002557) 西南证券·2025-03-03 05:07Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qiaqia Food (002557) with a target price of 34.02 CNY over the next six months, compared to the current price of 26.37 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 71.3 billion CNY for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.8%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.5 billion CNY, up 6.2% year-on-year. However, Q4 2024 saw a revenue of 23.7 billion CNY, a 2.0% increase year-on-year, but net profit dropped by 23.8% due to increased competition and rising costs [7][8]. - The company is focusing on category innovation and channel expansion, with a strategic emphasis on high-quality and cost-effective products. The nut category is expected to grow significantly, with revenue growth rates projected at 10.0%, 9.0%, and 8.0% for 2024-2026 [8][9]. - The report highlights the potential for improved profitability in the long term, driven by scale effects and successful product launches in new categories such as nut milk and peanuts [8][9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 68.06 billion CNY, with a slight decline of 1.13%. The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 71.31 billion CNY, 75.65 billion CNY, and 79.52 billion CNY, respectively, indicating growth rates of 4.79%, 6.08%, and 5.11% [2][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 8.03 billion CNY, with forecasts of 8.52 billion CNY, 9.59 billion CNY, and 10.75 billion CNY for the following years, reflecting growth rates of -17.75%, 6.19%, 12.48%, and 12.10% [2][10]. Profitability Metrics - The report indicates an improvement in the overall net profit margin for 2024, which increased by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year. However, the Q4 net profit margin decreased by 3.2 percentage points year-on-year due to rising costs and increased marketing expenses [7][8]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 26.8% in 2023 to 31.2% by 2026, driven by lower raw material costs and scale effects in the nut category [10][13]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively expanding its market presence by penetrating lower-tier cities and enhancing its product offerings in the nut and seed categories. The strategy includes increasing SKU counts in bulk channels and promoting high-margin products through e-commerce [8][9]. - The competitive landscape is challenging, with intense price competition in the gift box segment and reduced foot traffic in key sales channels impacting revenue growth [7][8]. Valuation - The report assigns a PE ratio of 18 for 2025, leading to a target price of 34.02 CNY, which reflects a favorable valuation compared to peers in the industry [9][11].