CMSK(001979) 开源证券·2025-03-03 17:05Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company's sales performance remains stable, but impairment provisions have negatively impacted its earnings. The company reported a year-on-year increase in revenue but a decline in net profit due to the overall turbulence in the real estate market [6][7] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 40.4 billion, 59.7 billion, and 64.7 billion respectively, down from previous estimates of 50.9 billion, 70.0 billion, and 74.0 billion. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 22.0, 14.9, and 13.8 for the respective years [6][10] - The company continues to focus on acquiring land in core cities, maintaining a strong market position with ample saleable inventory and smooth financing channels, which is expected to enhance its market share in the future [6][8] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 1789.48 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.25%. However, operating profit decreased by 36.54% to 90.00 billion, and net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 36.09% to 40.4 billion [7][10] - The net cash flow from operating activities was 319.64 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.69%. By the end of 2024, the company's cash balance was 1003.51 billion, up 120.62 billion or 13.66% year-on-year [8] - The company has made sufficient impairment provisions totaling 59.4 billion, which impacted net profit by 43.4 billion. This includes provisions for credit losses, inventory write-downs, and goodwill impairment [9][10] Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts revenue growth of 5.4% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026, with expected net profits of 5.97 billion and 6.47 billion respectively [10][16] - The projected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 0.45, 0.66, and 0.71 respectively, with a corresponding PE ratio of 22.0, 14.9, and 13.8 [10][16]