东诚药业：肝素原料业务短期承压，核药创新管线持续推进-20250305

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The heparin raw material business is under short-term pressure, while the innovative nuclear medicine pipeline continues to advance [5] - The company reported a revenue of 2.87 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 12.4%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 180 million yuan, also down 12.4% [7] - The nuclear medicine business remains relatively stable, with a focus on building a comprehensive industrial chain from diagnostic to therapeutic nuclear medicines [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue forecast for 2023 is 3.28 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -8.58%, and for 2024, it is expected to be 2.87 billion yuan, down 12.42% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 210 million yuan in 2023, decreasing by 31.75%, and is expected to recover to 247 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 34.53% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.25 yuan in 2023, increasing to 0.30 yuan in 2025 and 0.49 yuan in 2027 [6] Business Segment Performance - The raw material drug segment generated 1.26 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, down 25.2%, with heparin products alone contributing 840 million yuan, a decline of 36.3% due to price drops [7] - The nuclear medicine segment achieved 1.01 billion yuan in revenue, with key products like 18F-FDG showing a slight increase of 0.25% [7] - The formulation business reported 330 million yuan in revenue, down 18.7%, but the key product, N-acetylcysteine injection, saw a significant increase of 74.9% due to policy-driven sales volume growth [7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see net profits of 250 million yuan in 2025, 330 million yuan in 2026, and 410 million yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 34.5%, 34.7%, and 22.0% [7] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 44, 33, and 27 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting the innovative potential of the nuclear medicine pipeline [7]