Investment Rating - The report suggests a long-term tight supply in wood chips and pulp, emphasizing the importance of upstream resource layout, which may become a key differentiator in profitability [1]. Core Insights - The cash cost differentiation between hardwood and softwood pulp is significant, with Chilean softwood pulp having a cost advantage of 20-70 advantage over South American Canada [1]. - The EBITDA profit margin for the largest hardwood producer, Suzano, is superior to its peers, indicating a stable profitability despite varying accounting standards [1]. - The report highlights that raw material, logistics, and energy layout contribute to profitability differences, with wood chips accounting for approximately 40% of cash costs [2]. Summary by Sections Supply Constraints - Long-term supply of softwood is expected to be tight due to limited availability and environmental pressures, while no large-scale new capacity for hardwood pulp is anticipated until 2026 [3]. Cost Structure - The cash cost of softwood pulp has increased from 508 per ton in 2023, with a CAGR of 2.4% for wood chips, chemicals, and labor [1]. - Hardwood pulp cash costs have decreased from 177 per ton in 2023, with a CAGR of -4% due to the appreciation of the dollar [1]. Logistics and Energy - Transportation costs from forest to mill and from mill to port are significant, with 2023 costs ranging from 1000 per ton, accounting for 10-20% of total delivery costs [2]. - Energy costs represent about 15-20% of pulp production costs, with leading overseas mills efficiently utilizing by-products to meet energy needs [2].
国君轻工|纵览海外浆厂,探寻盈利分化胜负手
2025-03-04 20:03