宏观视角看《政府工作报告

Economic Indicators - The 2025 fiscal deficit is projected at 5.66 trillion, with a target deficit rate of around 4%, implying a nominal GDP of approximately 141.5 trillion[2] - The implied nominal GDP growth rate for 2025 is estimated at 4.9%, slightly below the actual GDP growth target of 5%[2] - The CPI target has been adjusted down to 2%, indicating a focus on improving supply-demand relationships[2] Fiscal Policy - The increase in fiscal deficit and special bonds is expected to contribute approximately 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth, with a total increase of 2.4 trillion compared to 2024[2] - The fiscal multiplier is estimated at 0.6, suggesting that the incremental fiscal deficit will contribute around 1.44 trillion to GDP, accounting for 1.1% of 2024's GDP[2] Monetary Policy - The liquidity tone has shifted from "reasonably ample" to "ample," indicating a potential tightening of the monetary environment[2] - New structural monetary policy tools will be implemented to promote the healthy development of the real estate and stock markets[2] Consumer Spending - A special bond of 300 billion will be issued to support consumer goods replacement, aligning with market expectations[2] - Policies aimed at boosting consumption may be introduced, particularly if external demand weakens[2] Risk Management - The report emphasizes a balanced approach to growth and risk management, stating that development is fundamental to gradually resolving risks[2] - Specific measures include allowing cities greater autonomy in managing housing stock and dynamically adjusting high-risk debt areas[2]