2025年政府工作报告解读：行稳致远

Economic Growth and Targets - The government sets a GDP growth target of around 5%, aligning with the need for stable employment, risk prevention, and improving livelihoods, supported by economic growth potential and favorable conditions[3] - The target growth rate corresponds with the long-term goal of doubling per capita GDP from $13,500 in 2024 to$27,000 by 2035, requiring an average annual growth rate of over 4.6%[3] - The growth target reflects the current economic phase, transitioning from traditional industries to emerging sectors like AI and robotics[3] Domestic Demand and Consumption - Expanding domestic demand is prioritized, with a focus on boosting consumption and improving investment efficiency[4] - Key measures include issuing CNY 300 billion in special bonds to support consumption upgrades and enhancing policies for digital, green, and intelligent consumption[4] - The central budget plans to allocate CNY 735 billion for effective investment, particularly in infrastructure and construction[4] Price Stability and Inflation - The consumer price index (CPI) target is set at around 2%, reflecting a pragmatic approach given the low inflation rates observed in recent years[5] - The CPI is expected to fluctuate around 0.2% in 2024, indicating a need for policies to improve supply-demand relationships[5] Fiscal Policy Adjustments - The fiscal policy is set to be more proactive, with a deficit rate of around 4%, increasing from the previous year by 1 percentage point, resulting in a deficit of CNY 5.66 trillion[7] - New government debt issuance is projected at CNY 11.86 trillion, an increase of CNY 2.9 trillion from the previous year[7] - Special bonds for local governments are expected to reach CNY 4.4 trillion, up by CNY 500 billion, focusing on investment and debt resolution[7] Monetary Policy Stance - A moderately loose monetary policy is emphasized, with a focus on aligning money supply growth with economic growth and price stability targets[9] - The report suggests potential reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates to lower financing costs and stimulate demand[9] - Structural monetary policy tools will support key sectors, including real estate, technology, and small enterprises[9]