中孚实业：乘时代之风，迎蜕变之年-20250307

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has completed its bankruptcy reorganization and launched an employee stock ownership plan, with a total capacity of 75/69/225 million tons in electrolytic aluminum, aluminum processing, and coal respectively [3] - The company's electrolytic aluminum capacity has increased to 750,000 tons, with a 50% increase in equity capacity due to two acquisitions in 2023 and 2024 [3] - The electricity cost for the company's hydropower aluminum in Sichuan is expected to decrease year-on-year starting in 2025 due to changes in electricity trading rules [3] - The decline in alumina prices is expected to enhance the profit margins of electrolytic aluminum production [3] - The company forecasts net profits of 767 million, 2.102 billion, and 2.662 billion yuan for 2023-2025, with respective year-on-year growth rates of -33.86%, +174.24%, and +26.62% [3] Company Overview - The company, established in 1993, primarily engages in electrolytic aluminum, aluminum processing, and coal, with a total capacity of 75 million tons for electrolytic aluminum [10] - The company has undergone significant restructuring and has successfully emerged from a ST crisis, completing its reorganization plan in 2021 [12] Business Analysis - The company has shifted its electrolytic aluminum production from coal-fired to hydropower in Sichuan to optimize energy structure and avoid winter production restrictions [41] - The company’s aluminum processing segment has seen a decrease in revenue contribution, while the electrolytic aluminum segment has experienced rapid growth [32] Financial Analysis - The company has shown a significant improvement in financial health post-reorganization, with net profits of 656 million, 1.050 billion, and 1.159 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023 [20] - The asset-liability ratio has decreased significantly from 100.55% in 2020 to around 35% in 2022-2024 [33] - The company’s gross margin and net margin for the first three quarters of 2024 were 11.05% and 4.8% respectively, indicating a competitive position in the industry [70]