中银证券：中银晨会聚焦-20250307

Market Overview - The report highlights a selection of stocks for March, including Jitu Express, China Petroleum, and others, indicating a focus on diverse sectors [1] - Major market indices showed positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3381.10, up 1.17% [1] Economic Policy Insights - The government work report sets a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, aligning with market expectations [3][9] - Employment targets include creating over 12 million urban jobs in 2025, with an urban unemployment rate target of approximately 5.5% [3][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of stabilizing and expanding employment and income, which is crucial for enhancing industry demand [3][9] Monetary and Fiscal Policy - The report indicates a shift towards a more proactive fiscal policy, with a proposed fiscal deficit rate of around 4% for 2025, higher than previous years [6][21] - Monetary policy is described as "appropriately loose," with potential for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [6][10][21] Industry-Specific Developments - The report outlines a strategic focus on innovation-driven, high-end manufacturing, and green development, with increased emphasis on emerging industries such as AI and robotics [7][22] - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from policy support aimed at boosting domestic demand and material upgrades [20][21] Real Estate Sector Analysis - The real estate sector is characterized by a "stop falling and stabilize" approach, with policies aimed at releasing demand and mitigating risks [12][16] - The government plans to optimize land supply and improve the quality of real estate development, indicating a shift towards quality over quantity [13][14] - The report highlights the importance of revitalizing existing land and properties, with a focus on converting commercial properties into affordable housing [14][15] Conclusion - Overall, the report suggests a positive outlook for various sectors, driven by supportive government policies and a focus on innovation and quality development [8][22]