2025年1-2月贸易数据解读：1-2月出口动能整体偏强，贸易战影响或先在进口方面有所体现

Export Performance - In January-February 2025, China's export value increased by 2.3% year-on-year, a significant drop of 8.4 percentage points compared to December 2024[1] - The export value in January-February 2025 showed a month-on-month increase of 60.9%, exceeding the 10-year average of 57.9%[2] - Exports to the US grew by 2.3% year-on-year, with a decrease of 2.6 percentage points from December 2024, indicating the trade war's impact has not fully materialized[3] Import Performance - In January-February 2025, China's import value decreased by 8.4% year-on-year, contrasting with a 1.0% increase in December 2024[9] - The average month-on-month increase for imports over the past 10 years in January-February was 66.5%, while in 2025 it was only 60.2%[9] - The decline in imports was primarily driven by weak domestic demand and the impact of the trade war on import needs[9] Trade Partners - Exports to ASEAN increased by 5.7% year-on-year, while exports to the EU grew by 0.6%, both showing a decline from December 2024 due to high base effects[5] - Exports to South Korea fell by 2.6%, reflecting broader weaknesses in South Korea's external trade[5] - Exports to India rose by 7.9%, indicating stronger export momentum despite high base effects[5] Future Outlook - The trade war is expected to further impact exports, with a potential significant year-on-year decline in March 2025 due to new tariffs on Chinese goods[6] - Import values are projected to continue declining in March 2025, with a forecasted year-on-year decrease of around -5.0%[12] - The Chinese government is focusing on stabilizing foreign trade and promoting new growth areas such as cross-border e-commerce and service trade to mitigate trade war impacts[7]