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2025年1-2月进出口数据点评:部分机电产品仍维持出口优势
中银证券·2025-03-07 11:51

Export Performance - In January-February 2025, China's exports increased by 2.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 3.6 percentage points compared to the growth rate in 2024[1] - Exports in RMB terms grew by 3.4%, also narrowing by 3.7 percentage points from 2024[1] - The trade surplus reached 170.52billion,withimportsdecliningby8.4170.52 billion, with imports declining by 8.4%, a drop of 9.5 percentage points from the previous year[1] Trade Partners - ASEAN remains China's largest trading partner, with total trade amounting to 143.78 billion, accounting for 15.8% of total trade, and exports to ASEAN growing by 5.7%[1] - Trade with the EU totaled 115.94billion,representing12.7115.94 billion, representing 12.7% of total trade, with exports increasing by 0.6%[1] - Trade with the US reached 102.07 billion, making up 11.2% of total trade, with exports rising by 2.3%[1] Product Categories - Integrated circuits and automatic data processing equipment saw export growth rates of 11.9% and 10.5%, respectively[2] - The automotive industry continues to show positive growth despite a high base effect[2] Economic Factors - Increased uncertainty in overseas demand is noted, with the US ISM Manufacturing PMI at 50.3, down 0.6 percentage points from January[3] - A 10% tariff on imports from China, signed by US President Trump, adds to the uncertainty in external demand[3] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected resilience in inflation among major economies and increased geopolitical uncertainties[3]