2025年政府工作报告点评：财政货币双宽松，市场有望延续震荡上行

Economic Growth and Targets - The GDP growth target for 2025 is set at around 5%, consistent with the previous year's target, reflecting a pragmatic approach with certain challenges[2] - The expected nominal GDP for 2025 is approximately CNY 141.5 trillion, corresponding to a nominal GDP growth rate of 4.9%[3] Inflation and CPI - The CPI target for 2025 is set at around 2%, with an expected year-on-year increase of approximately 0.8%[3] - Historical CPI data shows that actual figures have consistently fallen below the 3% target since 2015, indicating a need for realistic expectations[3] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal deficit rate is planned at around 4%, higher than last year's target, with a deficit scale of CNY 5.66 trillion, an increase of CNY 1.6 trillion from the previous year[3] - General public budget expenditure is expected to reach CNY 29.7 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.4%[3] Monetary Policy - The government emphasizes "appropriate monetary easing," indicating potential for further reductions in reserve requirements and policy rates throughout the year[7] - The ten-year government bond yield has decreased from 2.02% to 1.71%, reflecting market expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy[7] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The government report prioritizes expanding domestic demand, with a focus on boosting consumption and investment efficiency[9] - Specific measures include promoting consumer income growth and enhancing service sectors to stimulate consumption[10] Risk Management - The report highlights a balanced approach to risk management, focusing on real estate, local government debt, and financial sector risks[12] - New measures aim to stabilize the real estate market and support local government debt resolution while promoting economic development[14] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the capital market may continue to experience upward fluctuations, driven by optimistic growth policies and improved market sentiment[16] - Historical data indicates a strong correlation between fiscal deficit rates and stock market performance, suggesting potential for a bullish trend in A-shares[17]