2025年《政府工作报告》解读：以促内需和发展新质生产力为重点助力经济增长

Economic Goals - The economic growth target for 2025 is set at around 5%, consistent with last year's target, reflecting the government's commitment to stabilize growth[3] - The target for urban employment is set at over 12 million new jobs, with an unemployment rate target of around 5.5%, both unchanged from last year[7] - To achieve the employment target, a minimum economic growth rate of 4.8% is required, based on historical data indicating that 1% GDP growth generates approximately 2.512 million new jobs[7] Inflation and Fiscal Policy - The CPI inflation target has been lowered to around 2%, marking the first time it is set below 3%[7] - The fiscal deficit target is set at around 4% of GDP, the highest since the pandemic years, with a total deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from last year[13] - Local government special bond quotas have increased to 4.4 trillion yuan, up from 3.9 trillion yuan last year, indicating a more aggressive fiscal stance[13] Policy Stimulus and Investment - The government plans to issue 300 billion yuan in special bonds to support the "old for new" consumption policy, doubling last year's issuance[14] - Central budget investment has increased by 35 billion yuan to 735 billion yuan, aimed at enhancing service sector investment[15] - The overall expansion of government debt is projected to increase by 2.9 trillion yuan, equivalent to about 2% of GDP, significantly higher than the 0.9% expansion in 2024[14] Monetary Policy and Market Support - The monetary policy remains "appropriately loose," with expectations of interest rate cuts of 20-30 basis points and reserve requirement ratio reductions of 50-100 basis points throughout the year[19] - The report emphasizes the need for structural monetary policy tools to support key sectors such as real estate, technology innovation, and consumption[19] Reform Directions - The report highlights the importance of technological innovation and industrial upgrading, particularly in AI and emerging industries, as key areas for reform[21] - It also stresses the need for measures to mitigate local government debt risks and enhance investment space[20] - The government aims to expand high-level openness and stabilize foreign trade and investment, despite a challenging external environment[22]