Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Views - The 2025 government work report emphasizes expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption, highlighting the current valuation recovery opportunities in the consumption sector [1][3] - The food and beverage sector's valuation is at a historical low, with expectations for gradual improvement in the industry fundamentals under the backdrop of domestic demand recovery [3] Summary by Sections Market Review - Last week, the food and beverage sector saw a gain of +0.7%, ranking 22nd among Shenwan's primary industries. The liquor sub-sector performed well, with gains of +1.5% for white liquor and +1.4% for other liquors, while dairy and snacks lagged with declines of -2.1% and -5.6% respectively [3][6] - As of March 7, the valuation (PE-TTM) for the white liquor sector was 19.8X, and for the food and beverage sector, it was 20.8X [15] Key Insights - National policies are increasing support for consumption, with expectations for improved domestic demand. The government report calls for a comprehensive expansion of domestic demand and emphasizes consumer spending to stimulate economic circulation [3] - The food and beverage sector's valuation is expected to recover as the industry fundamentals gradually improve. Fund holdings in the sector have decreased, indicating a low allocation status [3] - Different sub-sectors are approaching cyclical turning points, with strong brands in the liquor sector recommended for attention, such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Moutai [3] Industry Data Tracking Liquor - Recent prices for liquor show stability, with the price of Feitian Moutai ranging from 2,272 to 2,310 yuan per box [26] Dairy - As of February 28, the price of fresh milk was 3.09 yuan per kilogram, down 13.7% year-on-year [36] Meat - As of March 7, the national pig price was 7.36 yuan per jin, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [39] Important Announcements and Industry News - Dongpeng Beverage reported a revenue of 15.84 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 40.63%, with a net profit of 3.33 billion yuan, up 63.1% [46] - Changes in management at various companies, including the resignation of the chairman of Liangpinpuzi, were noted [46] Recent Research Report Review - A report on Zhongju High-Tech indicated a projected net profit reduction for 2024, with ongoing internal reforms expected to enhance future performance [49]
食品饮料行业周报：2025年政府工作报告强调扩内需、促消费，关注当前位置消费板块估值修复机会
中银证券·2025-03-09 07:58