宏观和大类资产配置周报：2025年财政支出力度有望明显加大

Macroeconomic Overview - The fiscal expenditure in 2025 is expected to increase significantly, with a deficit rate planned at around 4% and a deficit scale of CNY 5.66 trillion, which is an increase of 1 percentage point from 2024[9][16]. - The government aims for a GDP growth of approximately 5%, with an urban unemployment rate target of around 5.5% and over 12 million new urban jobs[16][9]. Asset Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.39% this week, while the CSI 300 Index futures increased by 1.16%[2][8]. - The yield on ten-year government bonds increased by 9 basis points to 1.80%, while the active ten-year government bond futures fell by 0.44%[2][8]. - Commodity futures saw declines, with coking coal futures down 1.42% and iron ore main contracts down 3.43%[2][8]. Investment Strategy - The recommended asset allocation order is equities > commodities > bonds > cash, indicating a bullish stance on stocks[5][9]. - Stocks are overweight due to the focus on the implementation of "incremental" policies, while bonds and cash are underweight due to potential short-term impacts from the stock-bond "teeter-totter" effect[4][9]. Consumer and Trade Data - In the first two months of 2025, China's total goods trade value was CNY 6.54 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.20%, with exports at CNY 3.88 trillion (up 3.40%) and imports at CNY 2.66 trillion (down 7.30%)[16][20]. - The government is focusing on boosting consumption, particularly in the automotive and real estate sectors, to stimulate economic growth[9][29].