策略周报：具身智能和AI双主线轮动行情

Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent National People's Congress (NPC) has boosted market confidence, with a more positive macro policy tone compared to last year, particularly in fiscal policy, which is expected to support A-share earnings recovery [3][8] - The report emphasizes that the current market is in a "window of opportunity" for humanoid robots and technology growth sectors, suggesting that tactical value in these areas should not be overlooked [2][26] - The AI product chain is experiencing significant catalysts, with key manufacturers accelerating orders in the computing power sector, indicating a potential new market cycle for the AI industry [2][38] Market Trends and Style - The NPC's positive macro policy stance, including a projected fiscal deficit rate of around 4% for 2025, is significantly higher than the past five years, indicating a willingness to increase government leverage [8] - The report notes that the market is entering a critical verification window for fundamental expectations, with upcoming social financing and inflation data expected to increase short-term volatility [10] - A-share valuations remain attractive, with the current valuation percentile at approximately 52%, compared to 79% for US stocks, suggesting a trend of valuation recovery for Chinese assets [10] Industry and Sector Performance - The defense and military industry saw the highest gains this week, influenced by annual defense budget growth and geopolitical tensions [23] - The report indicates that the humanoid robot sector is viewed as a barometer for risk appetite in A-shares, with significant trading activity observed [25][26] - The AI sector is highlighted as a new focus, with the introduction of the Manus AI agent marking a significant milestone in AI application engineering, potentially accelerating the deployment of AI applications across various industries [36][38] Economic Data and External Factors - Recent economic data shows a decline in export growth, with February's export amount showing a year-on-year increase of only 2.3%, down from 5.9% [14] - The report discusses the uncertainty in external demand, particularly due to fluctuating US economic indicators and trade policies, which may impact China's export outlook [9][10] - The report also notes that the recent decline in international oil prices has significantly affected the oil and petrochemical sectors [23]