2025年2月物价数据点评：年初两个月物价走势偏弱，促消费政策对物价有支撑作用

Group 1: CPI Trends - In February 2025, the CPI year-on-year growth turned negative at -0.7%, down from 0.5% in January, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of -0.1% for January-February, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from December 2024[1] - The decline in CPI is primarily attributed to the Spring Festival timing effect, with significant drops in food and service prices, particularly a 12.6% decrease in vegetable prices and a 3.3% decline in overall food prices[5] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, showed a year-on-year growth of 0.3% for January-February, indicating persistent weak demand in the market[7] Group 2: PPI Trends - The PPI in February 2025 decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, a slight improvement from a 2.3% decline in January, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%[1] - The decline in PPI is largely influenced by falling energy prices, particularly in oil and coal, but the rate of decline has narrowed due to improved demand from post-holiday resumption of work and growth stabilization policies[10] - The PPI for production materials fell by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 2.5%, reflecting weak demand for industrial products[13] Group 3: Future Outlook - The CPI is expected to rebound to around 0.3% year-on-year in March 2025, driven by a lower price base from the previous year[9] - The ability of the macro economy to escape low price levels in 2025 will depend on the stabilization of the real estate market, external trade environment changes, and the intensity of macro policies aimed at boosting consumption[9] - The government has set a CPI control target of around 2.0% for 2025, the lowest since 2004, indicating a focus on moderate price recovery[10]