中国两会遇上“美国衰退”叙事，新一轮“东升西落”交易预期正在酝酿中

Core Insights - The report highlights a new round of "East Rising, West Falling" trading narrative, driven by the expectation of a U.S. recession and China's leading position in the AI revolution [3][10][13] - The government work report for 2025 indicates a proactive macroeconomic policy, with a target deficit rate set at a historical high of around 4%, which is expected to boost market sentiment and investment structure [8][9][10] - The report anticipates that the valuation of Chinese technology stocks will undergo a significant reshaping, with domestic consumption and AI autonomy becoming the mid-term market focus [10][13] Market Overview - As of March 5, 2025, the overall market showed positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.56% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 1.61% [7] - The report notes a decline in market activity, with the average daily trading volume dropping to 17,009.27 billion yuan, a decrease of 2,906.41 billion yuan from the previous week [7] - The overall A-share market's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 19.06, reflecting a 1.63% increase from the previous week [7] Economic Projections - The government aims for a GDP growth of around 5% and a CPI increase of about 2% for 2025, indicating a commitment to economic stability and growth [8][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and developing new productive forces, aligning with the central economic work conference's objectives [10] Investment Trends - The report indicates a divergence in domestic capital flows, with financing and ETF funds showing opposite trends since the beginning of the year, suggesting a cautious approach among investors [14][15] - Historical data suggests a strong correlation between the annual broad deficit rate and the government's initial deficit target, indicating that fiscal expansion could positively impact economic growth and the stock market [9][10] Sector Focus - The report identifies sectors such as consumer goods, technology, and defense as potential areas for investment, particularly in light of the government's focus on consumption and technological self-reliance [10][13] - The report also notes that the Hang Seng Technology Index remains a point of interest for investors, reflecting ongoing trends in the technology sector [10]