国君煤炭|煤价见底,重迎配置价值——两会政府工作报告点评

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the coal industry, indicating that coal prices are expected to rebound above 770 CNY/ton due to recovering non-electric coal demand and seasonal peaks in June [1]. Core Insights - The coal price is anticipated to bottom out in March, with a current price of 693 CNY/ton as of March 5, 2024, and is expected to stabilize as demand recovers [2]. - Positive macroeconomic policies are expected to stimulate coal demand, with a projected fiscal deficit rate of around 4% for 2025, which is an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year [1]. - Supply constraints are expected to limit growth, with new production capacity in key regions projected to increase by only 0.6% by 2025, while imports may decline due to new regulations [3]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Dynamics - The coal market is currently experiencing a balance between supply and demand, with expectations of a narrowing price fluctuation as the market stabilizes [2]. - The report highlights that the warm winter has led to weak demand, exacerbated by high levels of imports, but does not predict a severe oversupply situation [2]. Section 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Domestic supply growth is limited, and new regulations in Indonesia are expected to suppress imports, potentially leading to a year-on-year decline in import volumes [3]. - Recovery in demand is anticipated as fiscal and monetary policies are expected to boost infrastructure and housing needs, particularly after the conclusion of the Two Sessions [3]. Section 3: Inventory Levels - Current inventory levels across the supply chain are low, with traders having sold off most of their stock and power plants reducing their inventories below levels seen in the previous year [3].