美国2月非农点评：就业小幅放缓，降息预期暂掩衰退担忧

Employment Data - In February, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 151,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%[3] - The consensus forecast for February's job additions was 160,000, with a previous value of 125,000[3] - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.4%, with a drop of 385,000 in the household survey[3] Employment Sector Performance - Goods-producing employment added 34,000 jobs, with construction contributing 19,000 jobs[4] - Service sector employment increased by 106,000, but retail jobs fell by 6,000, reflecting recent strikes and disappointing retail data[4] - Government employment saw a modest increase of 11,000, influenced by layoffs led by Musk[4] Broader Employment Trends - The U6 unemployment rate rose from 7.5% to 8%, indicating a rise in overall unemployment levels[5] - The number of individuals forced to work part-time due to economic reasons increased by 483,000 to 4.899 million[5] - Challenger job cuts surged by 120,000, a year-on-year increase of 103%[5] Market Implications - The weaker-than-expected employment data has intensified expectations for interest rate cuts, with the market now anticipating three rate cuts in 2025[5] - Following the employment report, U.S. stock markets showed slight recovery, while bond yields rose and the dollar weakened[5] - The overall economic outlook remains cautious, with risks including unexpected declines in employment and tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve[5]