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基石药业-B:迈向管线2.0,ROR1 ADC潜力十足-20250310

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 6.75 per share, compared to the current price of HKD 3.32 [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company, 基石药业, is focused on the research and development of innovative oncology drugs, with a balanced pipeline of 16 candidate drugs, including antibody-drug conjugates (ADC), bispecific antibodies, immunotherapies, and precision therapies [1][10]. - The company has successfully commercialized three main products:舒格利单抗 (PD-L1), 普拉替尼 (RET), and 阿伐替尼 (KIT/PDGFRA), and is expected to continue driving business growth through its key clinical projects CS5001 and CS2009 [1][2]. Summary by Sections Pipeline 2.0: New Strategic Direction - CS5001 (ROR1 ADC) shows promising potential in multiple hematological indications and solid tumors, with a global clinical progress ranking second [2][25]. - CS2009 (PD-1/VEGF/CTLA-4) has demonstrated superior antitumor activity in preclinical studies and has a broad applicable range across various tumor types [2][22]. Pipeline 1.0: Commercialization Progress - 舒格利单抗 has received approval for five indications in mainland China and is expected to generate royalty income from its commercialization by Pfizer [3][15]. - Both 普拉替尼 and 阿伐替尼 are anticipated to accelerate in volume post-local production, enhancing accessibility through pricing strategies [3][15]. Profit Forecast - The company forecasts total revenues of HKD 3.86 billion, HKD 5.16 billion, and HKD 8.29 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits projected at HKD -0.03 billion, HKD 0.29 billion, and HKD 0.93 billion [4][15].