2025年春季造纸行业投资策略：供需格局延续改善，中长期盈利向上

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook for the paper industry, indicating a recovery in profitability due to improved supply-demand dynamics [4][5]. Core Insights - The paper industry has established a bottom, with supply-side consolidation leading to improved long-term profitability [4]. - The report highlights that while short-term price increases for wood pulp may be limited due to supply pressures, long-term price stability is expected as demand gradually increases [4][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-demand structure changes in determining industry cycles, with a focus on both domestic and international demand trends [7][9]. Summary by Sections Wood Pulp - Wood pulp prices have stabilized since Q4 2024, with expectations for continued increases in 2025, although short-term upward potential is limited due to supply pressures [4][10]. - The supply side is expected to face pressure from new capacity coming online in H2 2024 and H1 2025, impacting short-term pricing [13][17]. - Demand for wood pulp is projected to grow slightly, with China and Europe being the primary markets [15][17]. Cultural Paper - Demand for double-glue paper is expected to remain stable in the short term, while copperplate paper demand is declining [22][39]. - The supply side is experiencing pressure due to significant production halts, particularly from major players like Chenming, which has affected overall capacity [38][39]. - Price increases for cultural paper are anticipated due to supply-side constraints and seasonal demand [39][44]. White Card Paper - Short-term demand for white card paper is constrained by economic pressures, but long-term growth is expected due to trends favoring paper over plastic [45][50]. - The supply side is facing challenges from new capacity additions, which may exert pressure on prices [51][52]. - The report notes a significant increase in exports, indicating strong international demand for white card products [50]. Boxboard and Corrugated Paper - The report indicates that the demand for boxboard and corrugated paper is closely tied to economic conditions, with a resilient long-term growth outlook [6][45]. - Supply-side dynamics are improving as new capacity is limited, leading to a slight improvement in the supply-demand balance [6][39].