国君化工|推动房地产市场回稳,地产链化工品有望受益

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the real estate market, emphasizing the goal of stabilizing the housing market as outlined in the government work report for 2025 [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that various measures, such as increasing local special bond quotas and expanding urban renewal projects, are expected to boost demand for real estate-related chemical products, recommending MDI, titanium dioxide, soda ash, organic silicon, and refrigerants [1][2]. - The urban renewal initiative is set to encompass a wide range of chemical products, with specific applications identified for MDI in eco-friendly board production, soda ash in glass manufacturing, titanium dioxide in coatings, and organic silicon in construction materials [2]. - The report notes that the price differentials for real estate-related products are at historically low levels, indicating potential for improvement in supply-demand dynamics as the real estate market stabilizes [3]. Summary by Sections - Government Initiatives: The 2025 government work report continues to emphasize stabilizing the housing market, with measures including increased local special bond quotas for land acquisition and easing restrictive policies based on local conditions [1]. - Chemical Product Demand: Urban renewal is expected to drive demand for various chemical products, including MDI for furniture and insulation, soda ash for window replacements, titanium dioxide for coatings, and organic silicon for construction applications [2]. - Market Dynamics: The report indicates that the real estate market is expected to bottom out in 2024, with key indicators such as investment and sales showing declines of -10.6%, -23.0%, -27.7%, and -12.9% respectively [3]. The report also highlights that many industries are nearing the end of their expansion phases, which may lead to improved supply conditions [3]. - Investment Recommendations: The report suggests a favorable outlook on the demand for chemical products driven by the expansion of urban renewal projects [4].