1-2月外贸数据点评：出口走弱了吗？

Export Performance - In January-February, export growth slowed to 2.3% year-on-year, but the absolute export value reached a record high of $539.94 billion[12] - The trade surplus for the same period was$170.51 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 36.8%[12] - Key reasons for export resilience include the delayed impact of U.S. tariffs, marginal improvement in global manufacturing, and favorable exchange rates[12] Regional Contributions - Exports to ASEAN, the U.S., and India showed stable growth, with ASEAN contributing 37.7% to total exports, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous year[17] - Exports to Vietnam grew by 13.3%, while exports to India increased by 7.6%, surpassing last year's annual growth rate[17] - Exports to the U.S. maintained a growth rate of 2.9%, while exports to the EU slightly declined to 1.0%[17] Product Categories - Agricultural products, electromechanical products, and high-tech products showed stable export performance, while labor-intensive products like bags and footwear saw a slowdown[22] - Agricultural exports contributed 0.1 percentage points to overall export growth, with grain exports turning positive at a 1.3% increase[22] - Electromechanical product exports maintained resilience with a year-on-year growth of 4.2%, contributing 2.3 percentage points to total exports[22] Import Trends - Imports fell sharply with a year-on-year decline of 8.4%, primarily due to a significant drop in bulk product imports[27] - Agricultural imports decreased by 14.7%, dragging down overall import growth by 1.3 percentage points, with grain imports plummeting by 35.6%[27] - Metal resource imports, including iron ore and copper, also saw declines, contributing to a 1.8 percentage point drop in import growth[27] Future Outlook - Short-term export growth may rebound as high base effects diminish, with potential increases in trade with Southeast Asia and South Asia[31] - Global liquidity conditions in 2025 may support a recovery in global manufacturing, countering the effects of U.S. tariff policies[31] - The main uncertainty for exports in 2025 stems from U.S. tariff policies, which could further impact global trade dynamics[31]