禾赛：In-line 4Q24 results; Upbeat 2025 guidance for shipment and profitability-20250312

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "BUY" rating to the company with a target price of US$25.00, up from a prior target price of US$23.00 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a record high of 222,054 LiDAR units shipped in 4Q24, leading to a total revenue increase of 33.4% QoQ to RMB702 million, and achieved its first quarterly GAAP net profit of RMB147 million [4][5]. - For 2025, the company anticipates LiDAR shipments between 1.2 million to 1.5 million units, driven by strong demand from major clients and new product launches [6][9]. - The management expressed confidence in maintaining a gross margin of around 40% despite a projected decline in average selling price (ASP) due to product mix changes [9][11]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB2,077 million in 2024 to RMB3,440 million in 2025, with a projected net profit of RMB265 million for 2025 [7][9]. - The company aims for a non-GAAP net profit of RMB350 million to RMB500 million in 2025, significantly exceeding consensus estimates [9][11]. Shipment and Product Mix - The company expects to ship 1.0 million to 1.3 million units of ADAS LiDAR and around 200,000 units of robotics LiDAR in 2025, with new products contributing significantly to growth [6][11]. - The ASP for ADAS LiDAR is projected to decline to RMB2,300 to RMB2,500 in 2025, down from over RMB4,000 in 2024, due to a shift towards more affordable products [9][11]. Valuation Methodology - The valuation methodology has shifted from price-to-sales (P/S) to price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples, with a target price of US$25.00 based on a 25x 2026E P/E ratio [4][11]. - The current multiples for the company are lower than its competitors, indicating potential undervaluation [11].