Workflow
美国2月CPI超预期回落,关税战影响尚未显现
浦银国际证券·2025-03-13 02:23

Inflation Data - In February, the core CPI inflation rate fell by 0.22 percentage points to 0.23%, below the market expectation of 0.3%[1] - Overall CPI growth rate decreased by 0.25 percentage points to 0.22%, also lower than market expectations[1] - Year-on-year, the overall CPI dropped by 0.2 percentage points to 2.8%, while the core CPI decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 3.1%[1] Employment Trends - February non-farm payrolls increased by 151,000, slightly below the expected 160,000[2] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1%, higher than the market expectation of 4%[2] - Average hourly wage growth slowed in February, although year-on-year growth still increased[2] Core CPI Components - Core goods prices saw a slight decrease in February, with a growth rate of 0.22% compared to 0.28% in January[2] - Super core services CPI dropped significantly by 0.5 percentage points to 0.21%[2] - Transportation services inflation rate fell to -0.81% in February from 1.84% in January, indicating a substantial decline[2] Tariff Impact - The ongoing tariff war, particularly the 10% tariff on Chinese goods, has not yet significantly impacted U.S. commodity prices[2] - The tariffs imposed on goods from Canada and Mexico could potentially raise U.S. inflation by 0.62 percentage points if fully passed on to consumers[3] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies continues to pose risks to inflation forecasts[5] Federal Reserve Outlook - Despite favorable employment and inflation data, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current stance without immediate rate cuts due to tariff uncertainties[5] - The Fed is projected to pause rate cuts in March and May, with potential cuts resuming in June[5] - The upcoming March Fed meeting is anticipated to reaffirm a "wait-and-see" approach amid economic uncertainties[6]