Lucky Harvest(002965) 天风证券·2025-03-13 12:05Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage in the automotive and automotive parts industry [6]. Core Views - The company's core business in new energy structural components is stable, while its robotics segment is expected to provide new growth opportunities. The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are estimated at 382 million, 492 million, and 618 million yuan respectively, with a corresponding PE ratio of 28, 22, and 17 times for those years. The target price is set between 60.25 and 72.3 yuan, based on a 25-30 times PE valuation for 2025 [4][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Development and Market Position - The company has established a solid core technology system in the mold and metal structural components sector since its inception in 2004, expanding into automotive stamping molds and metal structural components in 2008. It has gradually accumulated experience in precision stamping mold production and R&D [1][13]. - The company has invested in a subsidiary in Mexico to further explore overseas markets [1]. 2. New Energy Vehicle Market Potential - The demand for stamping parts is increasing due to the rising penetration of new energy vehicles (NEVs) and the trend towards automotive lightweighting. Major clients include Geely and BYD, with projected sales growth of 24.5% and 17% respectively by 2025 [2][48]. - The NEV market is expected to grow significantly, with sales projected to reach 1.5 million units for Geely and over 5 million units for BYD by 2025 [2][48]. 3. Robotics and Smart Manufacturing - The company has established a subsidiary focused on humanoid robotics and formed a strategic partnership with the Guangdong Academy of Sciences to develop key components for humanoid robots [3]. - The collaboration with Huawei in the robotics ecosystem is anticipated to create new opportunities for the company [3]. 4. Financial Performance and Projections - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with projected revenues of 7.03 billion, 8.75 billion, and 10.98 billion yuan for 2024-2026, reflecting growth rates of 23.31%, 24.42%, and 25.51% respectively [5]. - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 381.82 million yuan, with a slight decline projected for 2025 before rebounding in 2026 [5]. 5. Industry Trends and Customer Base - The NEV market is experiencing rapid growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 60.55% from 2019 to 2024, and the penetration rate expected to reach 40.93% by 2024 [36]. - The company has established long-term partnerships with leading battery manufacturers, contributing to its revenue growth [51]. 6. Strategic Collaborations and Market Expansion - The company has formed partnerships with international leaders in the energy storage and photovoltaic sectors, enhancing its market position and order acquisition capabilities [61]. - The expansion into digital infrastructure and data centers is also a focus, with the company supplying key components to major domestic players [67].