化工：钾肥价格上涨，新一轮周期将开启？

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The potassium fertilizer prices have significantly increased, with domestic spot prices rising from 2565 CNY/ton to 3310 CNY/ton, a 29.0% increase as of March 7, 2025 [2][9] - The supply-demand imbalance in the domestic potassium fertilizer market is exacerbated by low inventory levels and increased demand during the spring farming season [2][4] - Major potassium fertilizer producers in Belarus and Russia have announced production cuts, leading to a tighter global supply and increased prices [2][3] - The global potassium fertilizer market is characterized by oligopoly, with only 11 companies having a production capacity exceeding 2 million tons, accounting for 67.26% of the total capacity [3][13] - Domestic companies are actively expanding overseas, particularly in Laos, where several projects have begun production, indicating a positive trend for future supply stability [3][18] Summary by Sections Price Trends - Domestic potassium fertilizer prices have accelerated since the beginning of the year, with a notable increase post-Spring Festival [2][9] - As of March 6, 2025, the total inventory of potassium fertilizer at six major ports was 156.65 million tons, down approximately 940,000 tons year-on-year [2][9] Supply Dynamics - Belarusian producer Belaruskali announced a production reduction of approximately 900,000 to 1,000,000 tons due to maintenance activities [2][9] - Russian producer Uralkali plans to suspend production at three mines in the second and third quarters of 2025, reducing exports by an estimated 700,000 tons [2][9] Demand Outlook - The demand for potassium fertilizer is expected to recover moderately, supported by rising grain prices and the ongoing production cuts by major suppliers [3][4] - The report anticipates a new cycle of price increases for potassium fertilizer, with prices expected to rise amid fluctuations [3][4] Strategic Developments - Domestic potassium fertilizer companies are focusing on overseas investments, particularly in Laos, where resource advantages and transportation logistics are favorable [3][18] - Over 20 Chinese companies have established potassium mining projects in Laos, with some already in production [3][18]